Potential Labor Market Impacts of Artificial Intelligence: An Empirical Analysis

Summary

• Today, CEA releases a new report on the potential labor market impacts of AI. This report builds on the analysis and methodology previously developed by CEA for the Economic Report of the President. It includes new predictions of AI’s potential impacts, and new assessments of the evidence supporting CEA’s measures.
• Based on new analyses, CEA finds sufficient evidence to classify a subset of highly AI-exposed occupations as “potentially AI-vulnerable.” These occupations correspond to roughly 10 percent of overall employment in the economy. And, these occupations are already showing some signs of decreasing demand, such as slower employment growth and fewer incoming workers.
• CEA finds evidence that many potentially AI-vulnerable occupations have not upskilled over time, even though most other occupations have become more complex and difficult in recent years. This may make workers in these occupations more vulnerable to technology-related disruptions.
• New analyses also show evidence that older workers are more likely to be potentially AI-vulnerable, and that AI-exposed workers are less likely to be unionized than the overall workforce.
• CEA continues to find little evidence that AI will negatively impact overall employment, even though it could negatively impact some workers due to declining demand. CEA’s methodology also does not predict other potential sources of harm to workers, such as negative changes to working conditions or potential discrimination. These important topics continue to be the subject of other Administration initiatives.
• Finally, this report also provides key details on the construction of CEA’s measures of AI exposure and potential AI vulnerability, to benefit the overall research community and encourage continued engagement.
• CEA will continue to analyze trends in employment and earnings among AI-exposed and potentially AI-vulnerable occupations going forward, for signs of emerging effects on labor markets and the overall economy. And, it will continue to engage with researchers, scholars, and stakeholders to ensure that the Administration’s policy responses to AI are thoughtful and effective.

Read the full report here.